On Friday, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell below 77 rubles during trading.
Photo: Ivan MAKEEV
IT’S ALL ABOUT TAXES AND HOLIDAYS?
The ruble went uphill – on Friday, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell below 77 rubles during trading. This happened for the first time since March 31 – and in fact the whole April the dollar cost under 82 rubles. But for 6 trading sessions from April 27 to May 5, the dollar is getting cheaper. What is the reason for our fortress, is it good, and in general, what exchange rate will we go on?
– So far, I would not draw any fundamental conclusions, – KP.RU is cautious in the comments. Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics. – Based on the weekly dynamics, one cannot speak of a fundamental change in the vector. The situation is quite calm, but now we are in a zone of economic uncertainty. The ruble can be influenced by various factors in a short time. Someone did not go to auction, for example. Holidays, temporary calm. The tax period is over, this could also affect. You need to wait at least another week, then for a half-month period you can better understand where the exchange rate is moving.
HOW MUCH SHOULD A DOLLAR COST
And how much should a dollar cost in order for all of us to feel good?
– According to my feelings, the ruble has found its comfortable limits within 78-81 per dollar, – the expert continues. – Such an interval suits both the budget of the Russian Federation and exporters who produce currency for the country, and is not critical for the population. And the fluctuations can go on forever. Well, he went down to 77, then he will rise. There are no prerequisites for serious changes in the course so that it flies away, for example, to the level of 60 rubles. per dollar, does not exist now.
WHY WE NEED A STRONG RUBLE
When we hear that “the ruble is getting stronger”, this makes many people proud. Like, “Hurray, we are breaking, the Swedes are bending!” But is it good for the economy?
“The strengthening of the ruble is bad for the budget, bad for exporters,” says Ostapkovich. – And for the population, maybe it’s good, if we proceed from the fact that this will lead to a decrease in prices for imported products and products with an imported component. But it is far from certain that depreciation will necessarily and immediately lead to lower prices. It’s such a slow process. The fall of the exchange rate in the range of 1-3 rubles per dollar does not affect either prices or inflation. And the decline period is important. In order for a decrease to affect something, it must be observed stably for at least a month.
But the main thing is that there are no sharp jumps, the economist summed up.
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