From Diplomacy to Killing Zelensky: Five Possible Russian Responses to Attacks on the Kremlin
1. A dagger strike against Bankovaya and the liquidation of the entire elite of Ukraine, including Zelensky.
– It is unlikely that this will happen, no matter how much a significant part of Russian society would like it. The strike with “Daggers”, and even more so with the liquidation of Zelensky, in my opinion, is not currently being considered. The Ukrainian conflict is part of a global puzzle. Let’s not forget about Zelensky’s recent conversation with Xi Jinping. So this does not look like the logic of the Russian authorities in the context of a special operation.
2. A strike on Bankova, when Zelensky is not there, not only the president’s office, but almost the entire government quarter will be completely destroyed.
– But such an action of intimidation, a show of force – is possible. Just as a blow to the Kremlin is symbolic, so the response to Bankovaya, to geographic and material decision-making centers, can be symbolic.
But the calculation of the Russian leadership is always not emotional, but cold, strategic. Therefore, they are unlikely to spend “Daggers” solely on a demonstration of strength.
3. Target elimination of the organizers of this raid and other sabotage. We are talking about the head of the main intelligence department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Budanov, the head of the SBU Maliuk, and so on.
– A very likely scenario. We know that it is the GUR that is behind many terrorist acts and sabotage on the territory of our country. Moreover, Budanov has the courage to declare his plans publicly, in the press.
How can I do that? Give the GUR the status of a terrorist organization, like ISIS banned in Russia. Then the hands will be untied.
In addition, it will send a signal to the West that we do not intend to ignore such tools.
4. An exclusively diplomatic response: to raise the issue of recognizing Ukraine as a terrorist state both within Russia and in the international arena. Russia will try to demonstrate to the world that the Ukrainian authorities are inadequate and that one cannot do business with them.
– This scenario will not meet the expectations of a significant part of Russian society.
Let’s face it: the recognition of Ukraine as a terrorist country at the UN level is impossible. Recognition of its leadership as terrorists, even within Russia, is also not visible. But if the alignment of forces changes significantly in our favor, then such an instrument is possible.
5. The use of tactical nuclear weapons.
– This should not be considered as a real scenario at all. In my opinion, the use of nuclear weapons is possible only if Russia is on the verge of destruction.