June 1, 2023
Soothing speeches by Ukrainian officials and experts are most likely aimed at lulling our vigilance

Soothing speeches by Ukrainian officials and experts are most likely aimed at lulling our vigilance


In Ukraine, the tone of speeches by officials and experts regarding the upcoming counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has changed dramatically. Announcements of unprecedented victories gave way to a more cautious assessment and moderate rhetoric.

– Regarding whether there is such a linear, direct dependence on whether you will be effective in the counteroffensive and after that your negotiating positions will be different – no, there is definitely no such dependence. Everyone understands that Ukraine will do everything necessary to return its territories, that the counteroffensive is not just one event, it began today and in a week we can draw certain conclusions, – the adviser, an ardent supporter of negotiations on “Moscow’s surrender”, suddenly said head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak and urged Ukrainians to curb their appetites, at the same time reassuring them in case the “counterattack” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fails. – These are dozens, if not hundreds of different events that will somehow destroy the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, support, logistics and gradually liberate the territory. There is no such thing that you start today, and if something goes wrong with you, then tomorrow we will force you to sit at the negotiating table.

The Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik is even less optimistic in his assessments.

“The first fear is that overheated expectations within the Ukrainian society, in case of failure to achieve results, will lead to the weakening of the positions of power, the position of Zelensky, will lead to some kind of political crisis in the future,” he warns. – Especially in the fall, when the Rubicon of the elections will stand, in which the consolidated opposition to Zelensky is going to raise a question – either elections, or let’s divide power, we will create a coalition of national unity, otherwise you are already a usurper not entirely legitimate. Complicated political process could happen in autumn

Well, about the elections in the fall – this is what my grandmother said in two in the spring. But who so warmed up the degree of “expectation in society”, who literally threw tantrums about the allegedly inevitable “drive Russia beyond the Urals”, respectively, who will be to blame for the coming disappointment, which will undoubtedly be, Bortnik did not answer, said nothing.

On the other hand, he pointed out another danger of the failure of the “counterattack”.

– If the Ukrainian counter-offensive is not successful enough, then it will revive Russian ambitions, revive Russian illusions that Russia can still take all of Ukraine. This means that Russia will become absolutely incapable of negotiating, that it will start trying its offensive, – the political scientist issued his forecast. And here it was not without the Ukrainian “twisted looking glass”, because it is Kyiv that has been completely incapable of negotiating over the past 9 years. After all, even at the beginning of last year, there was an opportunity to avoid the conflict sliding into a military plane, for which it was only necessary to fulfill the Minsk agreements, which Ukraine itself undertook to do. But as a result of his inability to negotiate, as they say, we have what we have.

– That’s what the West is afraid of today, but this train has already been dispersed. And the inertia of this train of public expectations both within our society, and within part of Western societies, and the budgets for the military-industrial complex, continue to push this whole situation forward, despite the really significant risks, Bortnik concluded from his reasoning.

And this, perhaps, is the only thing in which he is right. The train was dispersed, and even if in Kyiv they now wished to cancel the counteroffensive attempt in order to save people, the Ukrainian authorities simply would not have succeeded. The force of inertia is dragging Ukraine into the abyss, where it is destined to finally disappear. However, her leadership is actively helping her in this, accelerating this movement. What contributes to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.

– They (Russians) are already thinking about the defense of territories. This is another wave. This is not an easy wave for us, too, – this “neloh” with a gunwhich he boasted the day before. – We understand that their persistence on the battlefield, which was at the beginning, was defeated by our forces, today they are digging in, making defensive lines. It will be difficult for us, it will be very difficult, but this is the second part in which we are going to take the initiative.

One can really decide that in Ukraine they began to prepare society for the impending failure of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But do not forget that such calming speeches that officials and experts say (Zelensky does not count, he must exude confidence in victory, although in the story with the story about the gun he did it very poorly, since he nevertheless promised to shoot back , when the Russians take him prisoner, refused to shoot himself even with the most unfortunate outcome for him) in addition to the task of trying to return the country to an adequate perception of reality, they can and certainly pursue the goal of lulling our vigilance and relaxing. Like, if they understand that they will not succeed, they should not strain themselves. That’s the calculation. Because, in order for them not to succeed, we must not relax, but try hard.

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