Which apartments will rise in price and which will fall in price: A forecast is given until 2030
For 2019-2022, housing in the 17 largest agglomerations has risen in price by an average of 76%
Photo: Julia PYKHALOVA
Do not expect any special changes in housing prices until 2030, they will remain at the level of 2022. These conclusions were made by the researchers of the Institute of Urban Economics Foundation.
The forecast concerns our largest urban agglomerations, including Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, etc. An agglomeration is not only a metropolis city itself, but also a densely populated part adjacent to it. For example, in the case of Moscow, it includes the Moscow region. It also has a disclaimer. We are talking about a real rise in prices, that is, above the level of inflation. Nominal price growth – within the limits of inflation – experts admit. As well as a slight bounce down.
The arguments are like this. In 2019-2022, housing in the 17 largest agglomerations has risen in price by an average of 76%. Even if we subtract 27% of the inflation that has run up during this period, it is still too steep – almost 50%! The incomes of potential buyers definitely did not grow at such a pace, and a mortgage is, of course, great, but it also needs to be paid somehow. There is no reason to believe that in the next few years the income of the population will suddenly grow by this 50%.
On the other hand, the authorities will seek to keep the construction sector afloat – its influence on the economy as a whole is too great. Therefore, there will be no collapse in prices either. One way or another, some measures will be devised to support demand – such as extending and expanding preferential mortgages – in order to avoid mass bankruptcy of developers.
– Of course, there are variations. Part of the real estate may lose in price more or less significantly, – says Alexander Tsyganov, head of the Department of Mortgage Housing Lending and Financial Instruments of the Real Estate Market of the Financial University. – This is a property with an unfortunate location or a very unfortunate layout. What I mean? I’ll give you an example. Recently I saw a house built near Nizhny Novgorod, but there is at least 4 km to some kind of social infrastructure. The developer simply intended to build a full-fledged block and started from the far end of the site. Now there is a hitch with these plans, it is impossible to carry out construction at the same pace because of the fall in demand. And the already erected house, of course, will lose in value. Who else will buy an apartment in an open field, without shops and other things, and incomprehensible prospects when it all appears. There are such projects in the Moscow region.
The reverse situation is also possible, according to the expert. Very well-located residential complexes can collect all the remaining demand – and apartments in them will rise in price by more than the rate of inflation. And there will certainly be some demand, since the flows of those wishing to move from small towns to the largest metropolitan areas have not disappeared. In addition, not all incomes are falling. Now new categories of citizens have appeared in the regions, whose incomes have grown much more significantly than these families could have imagined before. There is a possibility that this money will end up in the housing market – the benefit of the average Russian family is always where to improve their living conditions.